Inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected areas and the Colombian peace agreement: an oaxaca-blinder change decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The present study analyzes inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected regions of Meta, Colombia and socioeconomic factors contributing to the existence and changes in catastrophic expenditures before and after the sign of Colombian Peace Agreement with FARC-EP guerilla group in 2016. METHODS: The study uses the results of the survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) conducted in 1309 households of Meta, Colombia, a territory historically impacted by armed conflict, for the years 2014 and 2018. We define catastrophic expenditures as health expenditures above 20% of the capacity to pay of a household. We disaggregate the changes in inequalities in catastrophic expenditures through the Oaxaca-Blinder change decomposition method. RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic expenditures slightly increased between 2014 to 2018, from 29.3 to 30.7%. Inequalities in catastrophic expenditures, measured through concentration indexes (CI), also increased from 2014 (CI: -0.152) to 2018 (CI: -0.232). Results show that differences in catastrophic expenditures between socioeconomic groups are mostly attributed to an increased influence of specific sociodemographic variables such as living in rural zones, being a middle-aged person, living in conflict-affected territories, or presenting any type of mental and physical disability. CONCLUSIONS: Conflict-deescalation and the peace agreement may have facilitated lower-income groups to have access to health services, especially in territories highly impacted by conflict. This, consequently, may have led to higher levels of out-of-pocket expenditures and, therefore, to higher chances of experiencing catastrophic expenditures for lower-income groups in comparison to higher-income groups. Therefore, results indicate the importance of designing policies that guarantee access to health services for people in conflict -affected regions but also, that minimize health care inequalities in out-of-pocket payments that may arouse between people at different socioeconomic groups.

Prevalence of clinical malaria and household characteristics of patients in tribal districts of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, disproportionately affects poor people more than any other disease of public health concern in developing countries. In resource-constrained environments, monitoring the occurrence of malaria is essential for the success of national malaria control programs. Militancy and military conflicts have been a major challenge in monitoring the incidence and controlling malaria and other emerging infectious diseases. The conflicts and instability in Afghanistan have resulted in the migration of refugees into the war-torn tribal districts of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province and the possible introduction of many contagious epidemics. Although malaria is very common in all tribal districts, molecular, clinical and epidemiological data are scarce in these high-burden districts. Therefore, for the proper surveillance, detection, and control of malaria, obtaining and analyzing reliable data in these districts is essential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All 1,127 malaria-suspected patients were sampled within the transmission season in the tribal districts of KPK province between March 2016 to December 2018. After a detailed demographic and clinical investigation of malaria-suspected patients, the data were recorded. The data of the control group was collected simultaneously at the same site. They were considered as uncomplicated cases for statistical analyses. Blood samples were collected from malaria-suspected patients for the detection of Plasmodium species using microscopy and nested PCR (nPCR). Microscopy and nPCR examination detected 78% (n = 882) and 38% (n = 429) Plasmodium-positive patients, respectively. Among1,127 of 429nPCR detected cases with both species of malaria, the frequency of complications was as follows: anemia (n = 71; 16.5%), decompensated shock (n = 40; 9%), hyperpyrexia (n = 117; 27%), hyperparasitaemia (n = 49; 11%) hypoglycemia (n = 45; 10.5%), jaundice (n = 54; 13%), multiple convulsions (n = 37; 9%), and petechia (n = 16; 4%). We observed that 37% (n = 157 out of 429) of those patients infected by both Plasmodium species were children between the ages of 1 and 15 years old. The results revealed that Bajaur (24%), Kurram (20%), and Khyber (18%) districtshada higher proportion of P. vivax than P. falciparum cases. Most of the malaria cases were males (74%). Patients infected by both Plasmodium species tended to less commonly have received formal education and ownership of wealth indicators (e.g., fridge, TV set) was lower. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria in tribal districts of the KPK province largely affects young males. P. vivax is a major contributor to the spread of malaria in the area, including severe malaria. We observed a high prevalence of P. vivax in the Bajaur district. Children were the susceptible population to malaria infections whereas they were the least expected to use satisfactory prevention strategies. A higher level of education, a possession of TV sets, the use of bed nets, the use of repellent fluids, and fridges were all associated with protection from malaria. An increased investment in socio-economic development, a strong health infrastructure, and malaria education are key interventions to reduce malaria in the tribal districts.

Global Burden of Violence.

This article documents the increasing numbers of children impacted annually by 1 or more types of violence against children and describes the range of types of injuries and their immediate and long-term impacts on child outcomes. The article describes the growing number of international collaborations to decrease the numbers of children impacted by violence and to mitigate the consequences thereof, with a particular emphasis on children living in war zones.

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children.

Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women's and children's mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes.

BACKGROUND: Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time. METHODS: We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response. RESULTS: Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1-2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5-5), detection (5 days, IQR 5-6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8-13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7-18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7-16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5-9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7-61.0, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response.

No safe place: Prevalence and correlates of violence against conflict-affected women and girls in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Conflict and humanitarian crises increase the risk of both intimate partner violence and non-partner sexual violence against women and girls. We measured the prevalence and risk factors of different forms of violence against women and girls in South Sudan, which has suffered decades of conflict, most recently in 2013. METHODS: A population-based survey was conducted among women aged 15-64 in three conflict-affected sites in South Sudan: Juba, Rumbek, and the Protection of Civilian Sites (PoCs) in Juba between 2015 and 2016. FINDINGS: A total of 2,244 women between the ages of 15-64 were interviewed. Fifty percent (in the Juba PoCs) to 65% (in Juba and Rumbek) of all female respondents experienced either physical or sexual violence from a partner or non-partner in the course of their lifetimes. Approximately 35% of respondents have experienced rape, attempted rape or other forms of sexual violence by a non-partner during their lifetime. For ever-partnered women, lifetime prevalence of physical and/or sexual partner violence ranged between 54% in the Juba PoCs and 73% in Rumbek. Restrictive marital practices and gender norms, and experiences of conflict were major drivers of both partner and non-partner violence. CONCLUSION: Women and girls in South Sudan suffer among the highest levels of physical and sexual violence in the world. Although the prevalence of sexual assault by non-partners is four times the global average, women are still at greatest risk of physical and sexual assault from intimate partners. Conflict-related and intimate partner violence reinforce each other and are upheld by restrictive gender norms and marital practices. Expansion of comprehensive services, including health and psycho-social support for survivors is urgently needed. Moreover, policies and laws to prevent violence against women and provide survivors with access to justice should be given high priority within the ongoing peacebuilding process in South Sudan.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Users of rehabilitation services in 14 countries and territories affected by conflict, 1988-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the demographic and clinical characteristics of people attending physical rehabilitation centres run or supported by the International Committee of the Red Cross in countries and territories affected by conflict. METHODS: Of 150 such rehabilitation centres worldwide, 38 use an electronic patient management system. We invited all 38 centres to participate. We extracted de-identified data from 1988 to 2018 and categorized them by sex, age, country or territory and reason for using rehabilitation services. FINDINGS: Thirty-one of the 38 rehabilitation centres in 14 countries and territories participated. We included data for 287 274 individuals. Of people using rehabilitation services, 61.6% (176 949/287 274) were in Afghanistan, followed by 15.7% (44 959/287 274) in Cambodia. Seven places had over 9000 service users each (Afghanistan, Cambodia, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Myanmar, Somalia and Sudan). Overall, 72.6% (208 515/287 274) of service users were male. In eight countries, more than half of the users were of working age (18-59 years). Amputation was the most common reason for using rehabilitation services; 33.3% (95 574/287 274) of users were people with amputations, followed by 13.7% (39 446/287 274) with cerebral palsy. The male predominance was greater in the population aged 18-34 years (83.1%; 71 441/85 997) and in people with amputations (88.6%; 84 717/95 574) but was evident across all places, age groups and health conditions. CONCLUSION: The considerably lower attendance of females at the rehabilitation centres highlights the need to understand the factors that affect the accessibility and acceptability of rehabilitation for women and girls in conflict settings.

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups. METHODS: We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. RESULTS: We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (ß 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (ß 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (ß 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (ß 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

Armed conflict and birth weight.

This paper investigates the hidden yet persistent cost of conflict to birth weight outcomes for 53 developing countries experiencing conflict in the past three decades (1990-2018). Exploiting the variation across districts and conception months-years, we find that intrauterine exposure to armed conflict in the first trimester of pregnancy reduces child's weight at birth by 2.8% and raises the incidence of low birth weight by 3.2 percentage points. Infants born to poor and low educated mothers are especially vulnerable to the adverse repercussions of armed conflict. Given the long-lasting consequences of poor infant health over the life cycle, our findings call for global efforts in the prevention and mitigation of conflict. Extra attention should be directed to children and women from disadvantaged backgrounds.